The population story of Bangladesh has long been regarded as a major development success. Fertility fell considerably, child survival improved, life expectancy increased, and the country entered a favourable period in which working-age people outnumbered dependants.

Bangladesh became a global success story by bringing down its fertility rate over the decades. But that success is now being questioned over a single decimal point.

The dividend is not automatic—it requires a healthy, educated, and productively employed workforce.