Will El Niño steal Bangladesh’s coldest season this year?

Heavy coats are spending more time locked away in wardrobes as winter days across the country stay surprisingly warm. Navigating this unpredictable shift requires a smarter approach to daily wear — one that moves effortlessly from crisp morning air to warm afternoon sun.

In Dhaka, winter often begins with an argument over the fan. Someone wants it off at night. Someone else says it’s far too early. Then one morning the floor feels cold under your feet, and the sweater you’d forgotten about comes down from the top shelf.

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I look forward to those small changes. The walk to the tea stall feels better before the traffic warms the road. A cup of tea, or a bhapa pitha, made by your endearing mother, held carefully between your fingers, is a little more satisfying when you can see people pulling their shawls closer. Winter in Bangladesh lives in these habits as much as it does on a thermometer.

Which is why the news about El Niño made me wonder: will we still get that familiar cold breeze this winter?

El Niño begins far away, with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific. It can shift weather patterns across the world. Research on Bangladesh has linked El Niño years with warmer winter temperatures, so a milder season is possible. That is as far as we can honestly take it for now.

A warmer average does not mean every morning will be warm. We might still have cold spells, and winter in Rangpur will not necessarily feel like winter in Dhaka. El Niño is one influence among several. It cannot tell parents whether their children will need a jumper on a particular school morning in January.

There has also been a headline about possible additional heat-related deaths by February 2027. The date sounds unsettling, but February is simply the end of the researchers’ six-month calculation, which starts in September. It says nothing about whether January evenings will feel hot or whether the cold will leave us early.

If this winter is milder, the pitha stalls will still be there. So will the weddings, the sweaters bought for children who outgrow them by next year, and the family member who insists it is not cold while sitting under a blanket. The season will not vanish from our lives. Perhaps we will just find ourselves waiting for the weather to catch up with it.

Or perhaps a cold morning will arrive and settle the argument over the fan. I’m leaving my sweater within reach.